Public Opinion Strategies

Republicans can find some solace in the recent NPR national survey results that we are not alone. As Glen Bolger noted in his posting Independent’s Day, the GOP might now have a reason to believe.
What’s striking about this recent survey data is just how much closer Independents are to Republican voters on many key political [...] Read more

The California Republican Party Leadership Journal quotes Charlie Cook’s post concerning the possible shift in the Republicans’ favor based on the results of the NPR poll. Read more

I served on an Ad Hoc Committee of the American Association for Public Opinion Research that was formed in response to the controversy over the public polls in the New Hampshire Democratic primary.  The Committee’s report was released today.  Michael Traugott of the University of Michigan chaired the committee, and did yeoman’s work keeping the [...] Read more

Pollster.com shows the trend in polls for the New York CD20 race between Jim Tedisco and Scott Murphy.
What makes the trend persuasive in this case is how consistent the polls have been in showing Murphy’s gains and Tedisco’s (more moderate) declines. While there are only five polls, the results for both candidates are remarkably close [...] Read more

Bill McInturff is quoted by John Harwood in a New York Times article about President Obama’s trip to Europe.
Add the challenge of promoting a new strategy for the war in Afghanistan, and political strategists say there is no danger that Americans will confuse this trip with an escape from Mr. Obama’s principal responsibilities.
Bill McInturff, a [...] Read more

The West proved to be a pivotal battleground n the 2008 elections, both at the presidential level and in the success of Democrats to boost their majorities in the House and Senate.  Yet, current polling data seems to indicate that Western voters may be laggards when it comes to their support of all things Democrat.
Mood [...] Read more

Poll after poll shows that fixing the economy and getting people back to work is the number one issue on voters’ minds these days. But, our recent NBC/WSJ survey shows that 61% of the country is concerned the federal government will spend too much money trying to boost the economy and as a result will [...] Read more

Gene Ulm was interviewed on KCRW on American Populism in the 21st century. The link to listen is here. Read more

The current Misery Index (the unemployment and inflation rates combined) is 8.34 and rising. The unemployment rate alone was 8.1%. While history shows the unemployment rate can drop one point in three months once it comes off its peak, it also shows that it then takes six to nine months to drop every point thereafter.
Do [...] Read more

While there are clearly some glimmers of hope for the GOP in the latest NPR survey, there is also some major cautionary notes. The biggest caution of all is that – on four major issue battles, the Democrats have the advantage.
This analysis results are based on a bipartisan survey conducted by Public Opinion Strategies together [...] Read more