Public Opinion Strategies

See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_cat_bounce : an ugly notion that “even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from great height.”
It’s also a striking metaphor for America’s stagnant job market.  The number of Americans employed in the workforce has dropped by a tenth-of-a-point per month since February.
According to the Bureau of Labor and Statistics, in February,  58.6% [...] Read more

Economic growth is like gravity for campaigns: poor Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth sinks an incumbent while strong growth is a boon.
Check out http://www.data360.org/dsg.aspx?Data_Set_Group_Id=274 for a ton of historical data.
We’re talking about “real” GDP growth, not “nominal” GDP growth.   Real GDP growth is an apples-to-apples comparison that factors out inflation.    Example: the Obamanomics crowd is [...] Read more

We’ve documented the impact gas prices can have on presidential re-election numbers: when the average price for a gallon of regular gasoline is $2.43 or higher (in today’s dollars), the party that holds the White House ultimately loses the White House.
See http://pos.org/2012/03/pain-at-the-pump-not-good-for-obama/ for more.
If you doubt it, compare the price at the pump one-termers Jimmy [...] Read more

Pain at the pump: Not good for Obama
The price of gas has gone nothing but up over the last month; fifty cents per gallon, or ten percent, over the last year.
Modest economic growth, nixing the Keystone Pipeline and Iran’s continued saber-rattling over its desire to have the bomb all have one thing in common: More [...] Read more

It seems like we are being bombarded with what sounds like great economic news every day: the Dow is poised to break 13K, the unemployment rate is dropping like a stone and the Democrats are giddy over the prospect of President Obama’s re-election.
Not so fast.   The economic pain Americans have been suffering has received a [...] Read more

This past week, my wise and insightful partner Glen Bolger posted a blog entry labeled, “The Tipping Point.” It is definitely worth reading.
The premise of the bit is while a majority of voters have become disapproving of the President, there is still a well of good will toward the President personally.   A series of data [...] Read more

Since Truman, five presidents have won re-election and two have lost.   The average Misery Index for the winners was 8.89 the October prior to the November election.
In contrast, the two losers (Presidents Carter and Bush 41), suffered from an average Index of 15.39.  Ouch.
Where is President Obama?  As of last month, the Index was pegged [...] Read more

With State Senator Alberta Darling’s 54% win last night, Public Opinion Strategies helped defend the GOP majority and turn back a public employee union sponsored recall election.
Congratulations to Senator Darling and all of those involved in the campaign.
From the get-go, the campaign used our research to guide its messaging – Darling was NEVER below 50%, [...] Read more

Could Libertarian cult-icon Neil Peart – drummer and song-writer for the Canadian band Rush – be the Idea Man of the GOP? If it’s true, he would be on the cutting edge of an already large and growing constituency: voters who don’t trust government.
And, it’s not just when it comes to health care.
The enclosed tunes [...] Read more

You would never know it by reading the rock-and-roll press: metal band AC/DC has sold more records in the U.S. than Michael Jackson or Bruce Springsteen. More than 200 million albums world-wide and trail only the Beatles as the second best selling act EVER. “Back In Black” is the second best-selling album in history – [...] Read more