The Wall Street Journal quoted Bill McInturff in an article about the Florida primary results. The Washington Post quoted…
GOP Will Retain House Control in 2012 — Guaranteed.
Control of the House of Representatives after the 2012 elections will still belong to the Republicans. IF Barack Obama stages a political comeback (which is certianly within the realm of possibility), Democrats will start the presidential coattails drumbeat. However, there are two compelling tables in this post underscoring that the House outcome will dance to the [...] Read more
An Analysis of Wave Off-Year Exit Polls — Comparing 1994, 2006, and 2010
This post was written by Glen Bolger and Dave Wilson.
Over the past five mid-terms, there have been more wave elections (1994, 2006, 2010) than elections with limited swing (1998, 2002). We thought it would be enlightening to look at the national House exit polls from those three wave elections for similarities and differences.
The 2010 national [...] Read more
Post-Election National Survey
Glen Bolger conducted a post-election nationwide survey of 1,000 voters for the Faith and Freedom Coalition.
Presentation in PDF Format Read more
A Final Look At What’s Happening
We at Public Opinion Strategies wanted to wrap up the election cycle with some last minute observations about what is happening in the political environment, and how it is affecting campaigns.
It’s been a wild cycle – starting with a Nobel Peace Prize and other unearned accolades for Barack Obama, a failed, jobless, wasteful spending stimulus [...] Read more
New Survey In VA CD-5 Shows Obama Visit Has Modest Negative Impact
Public Opinion Strategies completed a survey in the Fifth Congressional District of Virginia one day after President Barack Obama held a rally for embattled Democratic incumbent Tom Perriello. As the attached release shows, the President’s political rally failed to boost Perriello’s standing.
Perriello is trailing Robert Hurt by a 45%-42% margin, with 6% for the third [...] Read more
So, I was wrong. . .so far.
A few weeks ago in a posting, I noted that the enthusiasm gap across 26 districts was worth an average of just over five points for Republicans. I also predicted that the gap would experience natural tightening, ending up in the two-to-four point range.
Well, based on an average across 28 Democratic-held districts this week, I [...] Read more
An In-Depth Look At Key Congressional Races — NPR Survey
Back in June, the survey that Stan Greenberg and I conducted for NPR was huge news. Conducted in 60 Democrat-held and 10 Republican-held seats, it showed Republicans ahead by a 48%-39% count in the Tier 1 seats (30 most vulnerable) and up 47%-45% in the Tier 2 seats (next 30 seats). It was the first [...] Read more
The Myth of the Democrat Surge
At the entrance to the Marine Corps Air Station Beaufort in South Carolina is a sign that reads, “The noise you hear is the sound of freedom.” Well, the noise you hear right now is the sound of Democrats whistling past the graveyard, with various claims that they are surging – by both closing the [...] Read more
Is the Enthusiasm Gap Closing?
Buoyed because they are not losing in all strong Democratic states or districts, there is a whistling past the grave yard argument being made by some Dems and pundits that the enthusiasm gap is closing. And that’s partly true.
The enthusiasm gap has narrowed slightly. But it was bound to narrow. The 2010 enthusiasm gap was [...] Read more
Do’s and Don’ts for GOP Campaigns
DO stay focused on the big picture. This election is about big things – economy/jobs, spending, keeping taxes from increasing, health care – all of which are related to the growth of the size and scope of government. Read more
DON’T focus a lot of effort on issue cul-de-sacs like the World Trade Center Mosque or illegal immigration. [...] Read more