Public Opinion Strategies

A lot of pundits have been overreaching on their analysis of the extraordinarily dramatic data that has shown significant voter anger at Washington.  There have been predictions that incumbents are “unsafe at any speed” and that voters are going to wipe out both Republicans (who after all control the House, where legislation passes before Harry [...] Read more

Control of the House of Representatives after the 2012 elections will still belong to the Republicans.  IF Barack Obama stages a political comeback (which is certianly within the realm of possibility), Democrats will start the presidential coattails drumbeat.  However, there are two compelling tables in this post underscoring that the House outcome will dance to the [...] Read more

We at Public Opinion Strategies wanted to wrap up the election cycle with some last minute observations about what is happening in the political environment, and how it is affecting campaigns.
It’s been a wild cycle – starting with a Nobel Peace Prize and other unearned accolades for Barack Obama, a failed, jobless, wasteful spending stimulus [...] Read more

Back in June, the survey that Stan Greenberg and I conducted for NPR was huge news. Conducted in 60 Democrat-held and 10 Republican-held seats, it showed Republicans ahead by a 48%-39% count in the Tier 1 seats (30 most vulnerable) and up 47%-45% in the Tier 2 seats (next 30 seats).  It was the first [...] Read more

Last week, I conducted a national survey for American Action Network.  The two key political environment questions show the significant opportunity Republicans have this year.  While the overall numbers on the President’s approval rating and the generic ballot are good news, one key crosstab highlights the wave that is building.
The generic ballot shows Republicans leading 44%-39%.   [...] Read more

Because it is the only message they have.   That doesn’t mean it will move voters.  But, blaming former President George W. Bush is one of the few areas where voters still give President Obama the benefit of the doubt, so Democrats will work with what they have. 
The problem Dems have is that Republicans are increasingly [...] Read more

No matter how the data is sliced, or who slices the data, a clear enthusiasm gap has emerged. I first blogged about the GOP advantage after the Virginia Gubernatorial race here, and after the House Battleground NPR survey here. Other pollsters have written about it. A handful of Democratic thinkers (pollsters, bloggers) have disputed whether [...] Read more

In a poll of 13 Battleground U.S. Senate seats conducted by Public Opinion Strategies for American Crossroads, voters made it clear that they are unhappy with the direction that Democrats are taking the country.  Voters in these Battleground Senate seats support the Republican candidates, and are especially sour on the Democratic incumbents.
One big story is [...] Read more

The Democrats say they have settled on their message arc for the cycle, and it is clearly a bifurcated approach. Nationally, President Obama, the White House, and their water-carrying special interests are going to frame the election as a choice, not a referendum. In specific campaigns, Democratic candidates are going to run as a combination [...] Read more

By now, nearly everyone knows the national political environment is problematic for Democrats this election cycle. However, an in-depth survey of key swing congressional districts underscores that the opportunities Republicans have to make significant gains in November are even more widespread than conventional wisdom holds.
The survey was conducted for National Public Radio by Greenberg Quinlan [...] Read more