Public Opinion Strategies

A lot of pundits have been overreaching on their analysis of the extraordinarily dramatic data that has shown significant voter anger at Washington.  There have been predictions that incumbents are “unsafe at any speed” and that voters are going to wipe out both Republicans (who after all control the House, where legislation passes before Harry [...] Read more

Back in June, the survey that Stan Greenberg and I conducted for NPR was huge news. Conducted in 60 Democrat-held and 10 Republican-held seats, it showed Republicans ahead by a 48%-39% count in the Tier 1 seats (30 most vulnerable) and up 47%-45% in the Tier 2 seats (next 30 seats).  It was the first [...] Read more

At the entrance to the Marine Corps Air Station Beaufort in South Carolina is a sign that reads, “The noise you hear is the sound of freedom.” Well, the noise you hear right now is the sound of Democrats whistling past the graveyard, with various claims that they are surging – by both closing the [...] Read more

Last week, I conducted a national survey for American Action Network.  The two key political environment questions show the significant opportunity Republicans have this year.  While the overall numbers on the President’s approval rating and the generic ballot are good news, one key crosstab highlights the wave that is building.
The generic ballot shows Republicans leading 44%-39%.   [...] Read more

By now, nearly everyone knows the national political environment is problematic for Democrats this election cycle. However, an in-depth survey of key swing congressional districts underscores that the opportunities Republicans have to make significant gains in November are even more widespread than conventional wisdom holds.
The survey was conducted for National Public Radio by Greenberg Quinlan [...] Read more

Instead, the current political environment is BETTER now for Republicans than it was at this same point in 1994.  Let’s look at three key data points from then and now: Read more

In May of 1994, a Wirthlin Group national survey found 28% said the country was going in the right direction, while 66% said it was pretty [...] Read more

For the first time since June 2003, the Republican candidate has a five point lead on the generic ballot in a new survey conducted for NPR by Public Opinion Strategies and Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner and Associates.  The Republican candidate has a 44%-39% advantage.
(The analysis of the data in this article  does not necessarily reflect the [...] Read more

Marriage.  Marriage is what brings us together today.  Most of the analyses looking at politics today focus on either the gender gap, or the generation gap, or the huge differences between base partisans.  However, one of the more enduring and important gaps is the marriage/single gap.
The 2008 exit polls showed the gap.  The 66% of [...] Read more

It certainly looks that way according to the trend lines. I’ve been keeping tabs on movement in the West, and the positive shifts we have seen this year point to a very different electoral environment than what we faced in November of 2008.
Most notably … the generic congressional ballot. Given our volume of [...] Read more

Last week, I posted a couple of entries looking at the tightening of the generic ballot (in comparison to 2005-2008) despite the challenges that remain for the GOP.  This post looks at key subgroups — other than GOPers, Independents, and Dems (they were covered last week) — on the generic ballot.
The most striking finding is [...] Read more