Tag Archive

GOP Now Holds Sizable Lead on the Generic Ballot. . .

By Glen Bolger

For the first time since June 2003, the Republican candidate has a five point lead on the generic ballot in a new survey conducted for NPR by Public Opinion Strategies and Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner and Associates.  The Republican candidate has a 44%-39% advantage.
(The analysis of the data in this article  does not necessarily reflect the [...]

“Man and Wife. Say Man and Wife.”

By Glen Bolger

Marriage.  Marriage is what brings us together today.  Most of the analyses looking at politics today focus on either the gender gap, or the generation gap, or the huge differences between base partisans.  However, one of the more enduring and important gaps is the marriage/single gap.
The 2008 exit polls showed the gap.  The 66% of [...]

Western States Round-Up: On The Comeback Trail?

By Nicole McCleskey

It certainly looks that way according to the trend lines. I’ve been keeping tabs on movement in the West, and the positive shifts we have seen this year point to a very different electoral environment than what we faced in November of 2008.
Most notably … the generic congressional ballot. Given our volume of [...]

An In-Depth Look At The Generic Ballot

By Glen Bolger

Last week, I posted a couple of entries looking at the tightening of the generic ballot (in comparison to 2005-2008) despite the challenges that remain for the GOP.  This post looks at key subgroups — other than GOPers, Independents, and Dems (they were covered last week) — on the generic ballot.
The most striking finding is [...]

Western States Round-Up

By Nicole McCleskey

I first posted on the positive trends in Western States last month.  The positive movement witnessed last month is holding.
Obama Approval
President Obama’s approval rating continues its descent in the West.  Last month, we reported a 56% approval rating, with 37% disapproving of the job he is doing as President.  That marked a ten point drop [...]

A Contradiction in Data

By Glen Bolger

Yesterday, I wrote a post about the Republican standing on the generic ballot being significantly better off now than four (and two) years ago.   Amy Walter from the Hotline made the following comment on my Facebook page:
“Thanks for the smart post Glen. It’s also interesting to note the tightening of the generic even as Congressional [...]

Better Off Than We Were Four Years Ago

By Glen Bolger

In the last off-year elections, Republicans trailed by eight to 15 points on the generic ballot from the summer  of 2005 throughout 2006.  The challenge wasn’t simply Katrina — the slippage came prior to then, as pre-surge Iraq proved to be a mess.  The deficit on the generic ballot remained in double digit range throughout 2008.
In case you are [...]

We Are Not Alone: Independents Are Starting To Think Like Us

By Rob Autry

Republicans can find some solace in the recent NPR national survey results that we are not alone. As Glen Bolger noted in his posting Independent’s Day, the GOP might now have a reason to believe.
What’s striking about this recent survey data is just how much closer Independents are to Republican voters on many key political [...]

It’s Independents Day

By Glen Bolger

The new national survey done for NPR by Public Opinion Strategies and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research is chock full of interesting data, including some good news for the GOP, as well as continued caution. I will be writing a new post per day this week on the NPR survey.
The best news is the generic ballot. [...]